Tag Archives: Clint Hurdle

The Dog Days: Predicting the Pirates in July and August

On July 19th, 2011, the Pittsburgh Pirates stood at a formidable 51-44, with a one-half game lead in the National League Central division. It was the latest into the season that the Pirates had been in first place since July 17th, 1997, so naturally there was some excitement to be had. In spite of the buzz, Pirates’ manager, Clint Hurdle remained grounded. “They don’t break a trophy in half and give it to you on July 19th,” he told some enthusiastic reporters in an interview. What happened next was disheartening. The Pirates would go on to win 21 of their remaining 67 games, leaving them with a 72-90 record. On July 19th, 2012, there was a similar song and dance. This time, the Pirates sat one-half game back of the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals, with a record of 51-40. Yet again, talking heads began to talk, and yet again, Hurdle encouraged them to settle down. Then came a collapse of legendary proportions. In 2012, the Pirates saw their high water mark rise to 16 games over .500 (63-47 on August 8th, 2012), only to win 16 of their remaining 52 games.

As I write this, it is, once again, July 19th. The Pirates have found a new high water mark (21 games over .500 on July 3rd, and 19 at the time of this writing), and are looking to improve tonight on the road against the Cincinnati Reds. Coming off of an exciting All Star Break, where we saw five Pirates represent the National League—the most since 1972—Clint Hurdle is still preaching patience. He continues to emphasize his team’s commitment to finishing the season, while dissuading reporters from getting overly excited about the team’s success.

Frankly, I admire Hurdle’s hesitance to get too cocky (add it to the list of similarities between the Pirates’ skipper and Han Solo). Recently, it seems that baseball writers tend to get somewhat reckless with their predictions of certain outcomes, especially with regard to the Pirates’ recent history. While I acknowledge that a lot of writers practically make their living on prognostication, it can be kind of a bother at times. Writers will sometimes tab the Pirates for a winning season at the beginning of the year, and then backtrack as the year progresses. It’s not fun.

I see myself as more of a fan and less of a professional journalist, (yesterday, Lindsay bought me ice cream, but I don’t think that counts as a paycheck) so I’m not really in the business of making predictions. I’m rooting (as fans are known to do) for a winning season, but I’m not interested in talking playoffs yet, as others seem to be. There’s a lot of baseball left to play, and I’ve been burned before.

Having said that, the Bucs are playing some pretty good baseball. Their record sits at a balmy 56-37, just one win shy of their entire 2012 total (and it’s not even August yet!). They have the best team earned run average in the league, (3.07) and share the lead for lowest WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched) at 1.18. Anyone who’s willing to talk about it will admit that pitching is crucial if a team expects to win consistently. However, their hitting could use some help. They’re 25th in the league in batting average, 22nd in on base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. A closer look at their numbers reveals that they’re not scoring runs at a substantial enough clip in order to sustain a 56-37 record, and in fact, based solely on run differential alone (Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed), the Pirates are projected to have only won 52 games (not a hugely significant drop-off, but still worth noting), suggesting that some luck was involved in their successful first half.*

None of this is to say anything with any certainty about the Pirates’ production in the second half of the season. They had a decently impressive first half, putting up some exciting numbers, and playing some exciting baseball in the Steel City. I speak for a lot of people when I say that it’s nice to have something fun to do during the summer months, and chasing .500 with the Pirates definitely counts as fun. I’m practically hopping out of my seat waiting for the first pitch tonight; I can’t wait to see what the Pirates will do with the second half, and I’m really hoping, as always, that it ends with (at least) an 82-win season.

* — Anyone struggling with the numbers aspect of baseball is going to have to trust me here. There’ll be another post dedicated completely to discussing some of baseball’s more baffling statistics. Hooray for numbers!

City of Champions, or: Why You Should Stop Worrying and Learn to Love the Pirates

If you’re reading this blog, there’s a good chance that you know a thing or two about the city of Pittsburgh.  You know that we’re the Steel City, and that we pride ourselves on hard work, especially in times of adversity. You know the skyline—the one that rivals even the tallest of skyscrapers in the biggest of cities—and, if pressed, I’m sure that you even know how to spell “Monongahela.” You know that we’re the City of Champions. You know about the Super Steelers, and “One For the Thumb,” and when we won that fifth Super Bowl, you know that fans and players alike were instantly hungry for a sixth. You know about the Penguins, Le Magnifique, and Sid the Kid. You know that there are people who are willing to lug couches up Centre Avenue so they can sit in the spot where “The Igloo” once stood, and watch the Pens on an enormous TV screen with tens of thousands of other fans who would prefer watching the game in the dark, on a vacant gravel lot, to watching it in the comfort of their own homes.

No doubt, you know about the Pirates, too. You know about Clemente, “We Are Fam-A-Lee,” and you know about Sid Bream’s slide into home in 1992 that sent the Pirates wandering in the desert for the next 20 seasons. Since then, you probably know that the Pirates have become a punch line. You know that we prefer winners to losers, and an inconsistent team equals an inconsistent fan base. A consistently bad team probably deserves a worse one

Roberto Clemente at PNC Park

WWRD: What Would Roberto Do? (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Naturally, I’ve had my doubts. In 2010, the Pirates recorded a paltry 57-105 record, and I was laughing right along with the rest of them. There didn’t even seem to be anyone within the Pirates’ organization who really cared all that much; why should I?

Clint Hurdle changed my mind. He took over managing the Pirates in 2011, after their dismal eighteenth consecutive losing season, and saw an opportunity within the crisis. Improbably, Hurdle seemed eager to join the organization who owns the record for futility, not only in baseball, but also in all of North American sports. In fact, he called it “the greatest opportunity in the world… [to rebond] a city with a ball club.” With such enthusiasm in Pirates’ leadership, it was hard for me not to follow suit, and now, I would encourage you to do the same. The iron will that was alive in Franco Harris, Mario Lemieux, and Roberto Clemente is alive in the Pirates today, even if they may not have demonstrated it in the win-loss column quite yet. They want to win, and more than anything, they want you to want them to win.

So here’s what I’m proposing. Don’t give up on the Pirates. If, after 20 long seasons, by some miracle, you haven’t given up on them yet, don’t give up on them now.

I always say that one of the reasons that I love the Pirates the way that I do is because the other teams give me high blood pressure. I love the Penguins and the Steelers too, but for different reasons. I get excitement from hockey and football, but I also expect success. When our teams fail, it stresses me out. With the Pirates, it’s different. Excitement isn’t always expected, but it’s always welcome, and losing one game is only a small setback. Baseball is a marathon. There’s room to brush off some of the losses. Especially with twenty years of losing, it’s nice to remember that there’s really nowhere to go but up.

The twenty-year monkey on our backs reminds me of another good reason to embrace the Battlin’ Bucs. When I dove headlong into fanaticism, I did so, in part, because I wanted to be able to say, “I told you so.” Slowly, but surely, it’s occurred to me that hundreds of thousands of voices crying “We told you so,” would be a lot more satisfying (Especially when “you” becomes, I don’t know, Cleveland or something).

I’m not going to talk to you about how PNC Park deserves to have a winner, and I’m not going to spew nostalgia about the good old days, sitting on the porch, listening to the Pirates on KDKA. You know that PNC Park is beautiful, and you know that the Pirates were a pretty good baseball team in the ‘60s and ‘70s. Right now, I’m asking you to make a leap of faith. I’m asking you to commit to a loser right now, which seems counterproductive, but I’m convinced that that commitment will pay off when the Pirates win their eighty-second game. I hope that you are too.