The Dog Days: Predicting the Pirates in July and August

On July 19th, 2011, the Pittsburgh Pirates stood at a formidable 51-44, with a one-half game lead in the National League Central division. It was the latest into the season that the Pirates had been in first place since July 17th, 1997, so naturally there was some excitement to be had. In spite of the buzz, Pirates’ manager, Clint Hurdle remained grounded. “They don’t break a trophy in half and give it to you on July 19th,” he told some enthusiastic reporters in an interview. What happened next was disheartening. The Pirates would go on to win 21 of their remaining 67 games, leaving them with a 72-90 record. On July 19th, 2012, there was a similar song and dance. This time, the Pirates sat one-half game back of the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals, with a record of 51-40. Yet again, talking heads began to talk, and yet again, Hurdle encouraged them to settle down. Then came a collapse of legendary proportions. In 2012, the Pirates saw their high water mark rise to 16 games over .500 (63-47 on August 8th, 2012), only to win 16 of their remaining 52 games.

As I write this, it is, once again, July 19th. The Pirates have found a new high water mark (21 games over .500 on July 3rd, and 19 at the time of this writing), and are looking to improve tonight on the road against the Cincinnati Reds. Coming off of an exciting All Star Break, where we saw five Pirates represent the National League—the most since 1972—Clint Hurdle is still preaching patience. He continues to emphasize his team’s commitment to finishing the season, while dissuading reporters from getting overly excited about the team’s success.

Frankly, I admire Hurdle’s hesitance to get too cocky (add it to the list of similarities between the Pirates’ skipper and Han Solo). Recently, it seems that baseball writers tend to get somewhat reckless with their predictions of certain outcomes, especially with regard to the Pirates’ recent history. While I acknowledge that a lot of writers practically make their living on prognostication, it can be kind of a bother at times. Writers will sometimes tab the Pirates for a winning season at the beginning of the year, and then backtrack as the year progresses. It’s not fun.

I see myself as more of a fan and less of a professional journalist, (yesterday, Lindsay bought me ice cream, but I don’t think that counts as a paycheck) so I’m not really in the business of making predictions. I’m rooting (as fans are known to do) for a winning season, but I’m not interested in talking playoffs yet, as others seem to be. There’s a lot of baseball left to play, and I’ve been burned before.

Having said that, the Bucs are playing some pretty good baseball. Their record sits at a balmy 56-37, just one win shy of their entire 2012 total (and it’s not even August yet!). They have the best team earned run average in the league, (3.07) and share the lead for lowest WHIP (Walks + Hits per Innings Pitched) at 1.18. Anyone who’s willing to talk about it will admit that pitching is crucial if a team expects to win consistently. However, their hitting could use some help. They’re 25th in the league in batting average, 22nd in on base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. A closer look at their numbers reveals that they’re not scoring runs at a substantial enough clip in order to sustain a 56-37 record, and in fact, based solely on run differential alone (Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed), the Pirates are projected to have only won 52 games (not a hugely significant drop-off, but still worth noting), suggesting that some luck was involved in their successful first half.*

None of this is to say anything with any certainty about the Pirates’ production in the second half of the season. They had a decently impressive first half, putting up some exciting numbers, and playing some exciting baseball in the Steel City. I speak for a lot of people when I say that it’s nice to have something fun to do during the summer months, and chasing .500 with the Pirates definitely counts as fun. I’m practically hopping out of my seat waiting for the first pitch tonight; I can’t wait to see what the Pirates will do with the second half, and I’m really hoping, as always, that it ends with (at least) an 82-win season.

* — Anyone struggling with the numbers aspect of baseball is going to have to trust me here. There’ll be another post dedicated completely to discussing some of baseball’s more baffling statistics. Hooray for numbers!

Treader’s Choice: Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix

Treading Art has been putting together an amazing list of weekend events around Pittsburgh. Each week we will highlight one of those events here on IheartPGH and link you back over to Treading Art’s weekly events post.

This weeks Treader’s Choice event:

Saturday, July 20th

Pittsburgh Vintage Grand Prix

Vintage car races through the hilly streets of Schenley Park, tents full of car aficionados and freebies and your support for the Autism Society of Pittsburgh and Allegheny Valley School. In full swing Saturday but we hear the real party is Sunday.

Schenley Park – Oakland

8am-5pm // FREE

This annual event raises funds to help provide residential care, treatment and support for developmentally disabled individuals in the Pittsburgh region. Their mission is “to maintain a world-class racing event that is free to the public to give all money to our two charities”. Many fun events will be going on throughout the weekend as well as various car shows.

Make sure you check out the rest of the Weekend Threadings!

Steel of the Week: TechShop Membership

This week’s Steel of the Week is truly a steal: membership to TechShop at over 50% off regular price. What exactly is TechShop you may be wondering?

“TechShop is a community based workshop and prototyping studio with locations nation-wide. Our seventh and newest location,TechShop Pittsburgh, offers the Pittsburgh maker community more than 16,000 square feet of workshops equipped with world class tools and equipment, computers loaded with design software featuring the Autodesk Design Suite, hundreds of classes each month, and the support and camaraderie of a community of like-minded makers.”

TechShop is more than just a workspace: it’s a community center where makers of all types can come together and celebrating the creation of new products. The professional tools and instruction the shop offers are unique to the space. We recently featured SolePower, a Pittsburgh startup that has their workspace at TechShop, and we’ve also talked about it here and here.

The steel is available on Amazon Local and LivingSocial (for only 6 more days!) and is for a one-month membership and one Choice class. These classes include in-depth instruction for a specific project, which vary from jewelry making, robot building, art installation, and many other areas. From the long list of classes offered are bound to find your dream DIY project!

If you have an item you would like featured as our Steel of the Week, submit to sotw@iheartpgh.com!

One of the Pirates’ biggest fans– Herb Soltman

As he walks in I ask “Are you Herb Soltman?” “That’s what my license says,” Herb replies.

Herb is a lifelong Pittsburgher, born in Squirrel Hill in 1935, and has been a lifelong Pirates fan.

Herb grew up, like many in his generation, playing baseball with his friends in their spare time. This was before the Steelers were good and the Penguins came into existence. “All there was to watch were baseball and college football,” Herb said.

Herb used to play baseball down at the grade school field or in the street after dark when the streetlights would turn on. Herb said that in his youth he and his friends would “mark a stone for each base or just scrape out a square” and make a game out of what they had. Herb said that if they didn’t have enough players for two teams, they’d rotate positions and make sure everyone had a chance to field and bat.

Pick-up baseball was how Herb and most of his friends spent their youth. Later into his teenage years, Herb and his friends switched from baseball to softball, because a “softball does less damage to cars and windows than a baseball.”

Herb has been a Pirates fan all his life, which hasn’t always been easy. The 1950s were especially difficult. “In 1952 they might have been a minor league team” Herb said. In the 1960s, everything changed for Herb and the Pirates.

Herb was working in a family paper business downtown and he managed to get tickets to game two, six, and seven of the 1960s World Series. He was sitting behind the Pirates’ dugout on the first baseline when Bill Mazeroski famously hit a walk-off home run to win the series for the Pirates. This is the only time a World Series has been won by a walk-off home run.

While the Steelers, Pirates, and Pitt Panthers victories in the 1970s were a special time for anyone cheering on Pittsburgh’s sports, the 1960s World Series had a special place in Herb’s life and in the life of many dedicated Pirates fans. On October 13, 1985, Saul Finkelstein (a devout Pirates fan as well) was having a bad day and decided to go to the location of the old Forbes Field (now the Pitt Law Library) and listen to a recording of the 1960s World Series game.

Saul did this with just a few friends until 1992 when Jim O’Brien (Pittsburgh sports author and author of “The Chief”) was looking for a story about the iconic 1960 World Series and found Saul. When Herb heard an advertisement for the rebroadcast of the 1960s World Series, he said he “slammed on [his] brakes and headed right over there.”

Around 2007, the Game Seven Gang was born. Before this everyone just showed up every year on October 13, but now there was some formal organization behind it. Every year since then, about 200 loyal fans get together on October 13 and listen to the same rebroadcast of the game. Herb was elected president of the Game Seven Gang and continues to organize the event every year. The attendance of the October 13 event began to grow, and in 2010 (the 50th anniversary of the game) there were about 1,600 people in attendance, including Bill Mazeroski and all the living Pittsburgh Pirates who played in that game.

The rebroadcast has never been rained out and is scheduled to happen again this year, on October 13. Though Herb is head of the gang, he insists that the gang won’t protect any turf, save for the Forbes Field wall.

Polish Hill’s Annual Arts Festival this Sunday

What could be a better way to beat the Sunday blues than heading over to Polish Hill for its annual arts festival? Started in 2008, the festival features crafters, food trucks, and live music.

There will be over 30 vendors present, and these aren’t your rinky-dink, run of the mill crafts. Polish Hill Arts Festival posted “previews” of the some vendors, and they are selling truly unique and beautiful art (including the previously featured John the Craftist). From wall art to silver jewelry, the festival offers a wide range of vendors–there’s something for everyone.

The event appeals to all ages, offering free arts and crafts activities for adults and children alike. If you aren’t feeling crafty, there will also be live performances throughout the day, featuring local bands.

The festival runs from noon-9p.m. on Sunday July 21st. You can find all the action at the intersection of Brereton and Dobson streets. For more information check out Polish Hill Arts Festival’s Facebook page.